Tourism Managment review Tomorrow's Tourist
Ian Yeoman has developed a strong reputation within tourism as
possibly our only specialised scenario planner...
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Chapter 1: Introduction: World Tourism and the Tourist in 2030
Chapter 4: What Will the Tourist Be Doing in 2030?
Chapter 6: The Health Tourist
– Searching for the
Fountain
of Youth in Incredible India
Dr Ian Yeoman, Futurologist
Much has been said about the consumer and climate change, but do they really care? While many trends have encouraged the growth of ethical consumption in recent years, there are some trends which have a negative or at least limiting influence. Ethical tourism is fashionable and is encouraged by the current dynamics of demographic change. However, it sits uneasily with many aspects of modern lifestyles. Greater wealth has made people more willing and more able to express their moral beliefs in how they holiday, but at the same time it has made consumers more demanding – they have high expectations and are unabashed in seeking out the best deal. A growing economy has facilitated greater choice, but it has also come with a demand for lower prices and greater convenience.
For example, Britain has a low price culture.
Yeoman and McMahon highlight that today's consumer is four times more price sensitive than
a decade ago. It seems consumers have got used to flying with Easy Jet or sleeping at Travelodge.
These goods are basic commodities which suffer deflationary pressures. From an ethical consumption
perspective, although surveys regularly report consumers' willingness to pay extra taxes or a
premium to stay in green hotels, the magnitude of this willingness often fails to materialise
into people actually paying more for the products. The biggest successes in ethical consumption
have been products which are either marginally more expensive (such as fair-trade coffee) or the
same price as the standard offerings (such as many of the green energy packages which are available).
Research undertaken by The Observer found that only 7% of people would pay a premium of 20%
or more for an ethical product – whereas 31% said they would not pay any extra for ethical goods.
Ethical experiences still need to compete on price with their unethical competitors. The
ethical cachet, like a desired brand name, can encourage a consumer to spend more. But even with
keen ethical tourists this is balanced by cost constraints. The keenest minority of wealthy
ethical tourists are sometimes willing to pay large premiums – but for the wider public steeped
in low price culture, small premiums are still the order of the day.
Ethical holidays are more widely available than before. However, they still represent only a small percentage of all holidays. Basically, ethical choice is difficult as travellers are not motivated to seek out alternatives, whether it is time constraints, availability or price. With the majority of people feeling time-pressured (especially in the key ethical demographics) it continues to be the case that only a minority of potential ethical tourists will travel using public transport. It is harder for consumers to be ethical where for example on a short break they leave the office at 5pm on a Friday night and want to be at their destination by 8pm. It is difficult to be ethical when children are impatient and public transport options are limited. It is difficult to be ethical when the cost of travelling by public transport is expensive and inconvenient when compared to using a car.
A further limiting factor on ethical consumption is that in many cases it is not the easy or
glamorous option. Sometimes consumers' ethics can clash with the have-it-all lifestyles we
enjoy, especially in the wealthy groups most influenced by the debate. For instance, lately
there has been a great deal of negative press around the environmental responsibility of air
travel. However, modern consumers, especially the wealthy, positively expect to be able to
take at least one foreign holiday a year. As these two trends clash, the ethical consumer must
judge whether they should take only short-haul holidays or indeed whether foreign travel is at
all compatible with their ethics. Recently some have sought to resolve this tension through
carbon offsetting, whereby the consumer is able to pay for programmes in tree-planting or
renewable energies which are claimed to neutralise the damage caused by their flight or their
entire holiday. The traditional approach to ethical consumption has been to lump all issues
under the one heading of ethical. A consumer interested in one issue is very likely to be
interested in all of the other issues. However, although the issues are often treated as one – they
are not the same. Indeed sometimes they work against one another. In the future these tensions will
grow, as the worsening environmental prognosis will force society to weigh the environment against
other ethical considerations. As we have seen, it is one of the ironies of the movement that those
with the most to lose are often the most engaged.
Can a sophisticated ethical consumer face a world without air travel or without foodstuffs
(coffee, spices, tropical fruit) from the wider world? Furthermore, even if consumers were
to forego these goods – what would be the impact upon the economies of the developing world?
Economies whose long-term strategy is precisely to gain greater access to affluent Western
markets. Life is difficult for today's tourist as they live a complicated life of conflicting
choices.
Looking to the future, the present fad with ethical tourism may die out, especially due to the ill balance of inflation in the world.
So, basically the tourist may say they are concerned about the environment or ethical living but it doesn't translate into practice. Ethical consumption is not a key driver amongst the vast majority of tourists - only a small minority.
Ian Yeoman's new book, Tomorrow's Tourist discusses what the future tourist will look like in 2030, where they will go on holiday and what they will do.
15th April 2008
Dr Ian Yeoman
www.tomorrowstourist.com
A Futurist's Thoughts on the Future of Technology
Some would think that the world of future has arrived today, the internet has changed society. The mobile changed it again. In the future, the internet is everywhere...
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New Publication: Men, Robots and Sex Tourism published in Futures
here.
Ian talks about scenario planning at ETFI conference
here.
Ian predicts eight trends for Spa's by 2021
here.
New Publication: A Futurist Perspective on the Future of Events has now being published in the Handbook of Events.
Ian is interviewed on the importance of scenario planning at ETFI conference
here.
Download Ian's presentation on the future of sleep
here.
Ian talks about the Future of Spas
here.
The Future of Tourism: ETFI conference, Leeuwarden, 2nd – 5th November 2011
[programme].
Ian talks on TV1 Breakfast about rugby and robots
here.
Ian discusses the top 12 travel trends in the
Travel + Leisure magazine.
Previous News items can be found here.