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2050 – Tomorrow's Tourism (2012)

 

Ian Yeoman, Victoria University of Wellington

 

"Knowing what will happen tomorrow has always fascinated humankind. However, predictions require not only a systemic approach but imagination and the ability to think outside of the box. Professor Ian Yeoman contributes to this question with a rich and thought–provoking analysis of tourism in the year 2050. Looking at the many interesting facets and the different scenarios unveiled is especially important from a sustainability point of view, as they help us to be better prepared, more responsible and inspire us today to find the most suitable answers for the challenges the tourism sector is facing."

Dr Dirk Glaesser UN World Tourism Organisation, Spain

 

2050: Tomorrow's Tourism sets out to:

Identify the core drivers of change to 2050

 

Picture world tourism in 2050

 

Critically analyse the implications of change

 

Discuss a range of topics including technology, food, consumption, climate change, transport and economics

 

 

In a world where 25 million tourists took an international holiday in 1950 and 100 years later it is forecasted to grow to 4.7 billion. Can humankind meet that forecast given the issues of ageing populations, peak oil, the global financial crisis and climate change?

 

Painting a picture of 2050 as scenarios helps leaders understand possible change, how change will occur and the consequences, threats and opportunities of the future. This book will stimulate your ideas and thoughts about the feature as well as informing your decisions making. This is a blue skies thinking book about the future of tourism and a thought provoking analytical commentary.

 

This book is based upon three clusters of change; wealth, technology and resources thus illustrating a number of predications, phenomena and ideas including:

 

In 1950, 25 million people took an international holiday representing 1 in 1000 of the world's population. One hundred years later, 4.7 billion people will take an international holiday representing nearly 1 in 2 of the world's population.

 

Longevity is a key trend associated with the future of tourism, as consumers live longer with wealth they expect richer experiences and more. They visit places and do things that their parents could not afford or would not have heard of. They will search for experiences that hold back the wrinkles of old age, whether it is a spa treatment in Hungary or a medical procedure in South Africa.

 

In one scenario, post 2030 retirees will probably have an insufficient level of income to travel as countries such as Germany, Italy, Holland, France and the United Kingdom reform pension policy.

 

Today, 30% of hotel bookings in the cities of Tokyo and Seoul are on the day of arrival through the mobile phone and this trend can only grow.

 

Imagine a future where a contact lens has all the features of a mobile phone and a camera.

 

What will a world look like without oil? Today we have battery powered sports cars and tomorrow hypersonic travel will make Shanghai to New York a 3 hour flight time.

 

In 2050, The Yub-Yum club, a sex club for business travellers where entry costs €10,000 for an all inclusive service in which patrons are 'serviced' by android sex workers; as a result, HIV and human trafficking is no longer a problem.

 

In the near future 3D printing will change the supply chain whereas in 2050 claytronics will change everything.

 

The Ciudad Grupo Santander bank in Madrid has created a futuristic visitor centre encompassing robotic butlers, an augmented reality model and interactive walls. Is this the future?

 

Authored by Ian Yeoman a leading academic researcher at Victoria of University of Wellington and the European Tourism Futures Institute described by the UK Sunday Times as the country's leading contemporary futurologist.

 

"It is a tour de force, where a touch of science fiction is woven through serious academic research, with alternate scenarios to test his hypothesis. Above all, it is fun to read, as Ian wanders irreverently around a world dominated by billions of Asian travellers from hundreds of megacities and where third–age tourists are still working routinely. He takes a tongue–in–cheek view of the coalescence of consumer choice and destination service through seamless shared technology which interfaces naturally with human thought."

Prof Geoffrey Lipman, Belgium

 

"Any attempt to predict the future is a journey into the unknown. On this adventure the reader will be continuously engaged, intrigued, exhilarated and occasionally irritated by the unexpected connections and extrapolations, but will never be jaded or bored on this breath taking roller coaster ride into the future."

Gregory Ashworth, University of Groningen, Netherlands

 

 

 

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