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Email: ian.yeoman@vuw.ac.nz

 

Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking

Scenario planning is the capability of organisations to understand their business environment, to think through what this means to them and then to act upon this new knowledge. Scenarios are a range of pictures and stories of the future that are constructed using drivers and trends that shape the future.

Scenarios provide alternative views of the future. They identify some significant events, main actors and their motivations, and they convey how the world functions.On a practical level, it is just about crystal ball gazing and estimating the future.

The key feature of scenario planning is asking 'What if?' questions that ponder 'if circumstances where different', 'the impact of x, y or z'.

Shell Oil where the pioneer's of scenario planning during the 1970's, developing a comprehensive process to understand how the world was changing, focusing on oil supplies and what it meant for the company. Shell's present scenarios look at the world in 2050. In the first scenario – called Scramble – policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario – Blueprints – growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions.

Too find out more, click here.

To learn more about scenario planning and how too build scenarios, the UK government's Foresight Programme provides an excellent 'how to' guide. Click here.

The use of scenarios within the tourism industry is documented in the paper by Ian Yeoman and Una McMcMahon-Beattie 'Developing a Scenario Planning Process Using a Blank Piece of Paper' which was published in Hospitality and Tourism Research.